2015 Year End Lessons on trading stocks based from my PSE diary

A common quality of successful stock investor is the ability to follow his rules and a steadfast ability to think independently. Experience is the best learning curve and this will serve to develop a guiding principles that will shape your investment philosophy.

If you apply the precepts this book and think for your self, you'll be well on your way

" NO RULE WILL WORK UNLESS IT IS PUT INTO PRACTICE"     - as the year end, I always compile and summarize my trading mistakes and lessons.The following rules can be roughly categorized into those that will help me to master my emotions and will therefore aid me in RISK control for next year trading.

1.Before taking a position, determine exactly where the stock you are watching, or the general market,stands A careful and deep study of price, activity, time and volume will help in this respect.

2. Whatever is hard to do in the market is  generally the right thing; and whatever is easy is usually the wrong    thing to do. CUT LOSS

3. Never average a loss. Do not buck the trend.

4. Don't treat your losses lightly; they are serious. You are losing actual currency

5. Avoid Uncertainty. when the trend is in doubt, stay out.

6. Never be sentimental about a stock.

7. Ask yourself what you really want. Many traders loose money because subconsciously their goal is entertainment, NOT PROFITS.

8. Learn to wait. Be patient.

9. Eliminate trust in any system you do not understand, but still believe in the basic idea of the system.

10. Let your profits RUN. cut your losses SHORT.

11. There is such a thing as luck, but it does not hold all the time.

12. Never ENTER into a position without FIRST establishing a Risk Reward.

13. Never BUY just because the price of a stock is low or sell short just because the price is high.

14.Don't close your trades without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order to protect your profits.

15.Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.

16. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.

17. Take an occasional mental inventory to find out exactly where you stand.

18. Don't listen on tips. Good tips are scarce and they take along time to materialize.

19. Trade with the trend. " The trend is your friend"

20. TRADE WITH A PLAN AND STICK TO IT

Constantly Analyze your mistakes. When we are successful, we tend to think that this process arises from hard work and good judgement. Rarely do we  attribute it to chance or the luck of being in the right time. On the other hand when things go against us, we often blame out setbacks on bad luck. It is only when we have made a mistake that we can begin to take the responsibility for our own actions and learn from those mistakes.

"there are no certainties in this investment  world, and where there are no certainties, you should begin by UNDERSTANDING YOURSELF" - James L. Fraser

Note taking simply gives me a good result on refining my strategy.

update portfolio as of  March 21, 2016

update portfolio as of  March 28, 2016

google819c1ce029f30cea.html

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My Philippine stocks diary - September 2015 Week 03

  A good starting point for self examination is to review your own investment or trading record over the past few years. Even if you have made a profit, careful examination may reveal that the record owes a considerable debt to one particular investment whose success was due as much to chance as to any other positive factor.

 Even successful point for self-examination is to review your own investing, then 

DISCLAIMER

Please be advised that this is not recommendation to BUY or SELL. Manage your OWN risk.

SEPTEMBER 2015 WEEK 03

"A man must think for himself; must follow his own convictions. Self trust is the foundation  of successful effort" - Dickson G Watts

STOCK PICK with good fundamental analysis:

Click the image to enlarge

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

i.  TABLE ANALYSIS

SEPTEMBER 14, 2015

TA 09142015 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Notes:

Notes 09142015

SEPTEMBER 15, 2015

TA 09152015 

Notes:

Notes 09152015

SEPTEMBER 16, 2015

NOTES:

Add caption

NOTES 09162015

TA 09162015

SEPTEMBER 17, 2015

NOTES:

ii.  GRAPHS 09142015

A. STOCK 01  -  Ayala  Land  Inc. (ALI) 
Click the image to enlarge

B. STOCK 02 - Metropolitan Bank Corp. (MBT)
Click the image to enlarge

C. STOCK 04 - Ayala Corp. (AC)
Click the image to enlarge

D. STOCK 05 - First Philippine Holdings (FPH)
Click the image to enlarge

E. STOCK 06 -  Federal land Inc. (FLI)
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EXECUTION:
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Last Monday Execution September 14, 2015

BUY AND SELL RECORDS

Note on Strategy : 
09142015:  ALI stock on the  second day rally with a surge of 4.81%,  I made a sell O-H order  and it sold my 5000 shares with a profit of 3.80%. With this, despite of the downside last week it recovers with a profit. Sometimes a downtrend is just a part until you will wait for the reversal and stick to your strategy. Again and again EDC  surge for this day and I learned a lesson of selling my EDC last Friday because of fear and not sticking to my trade.


09152015:  FLI stocks  already sold but too early I made a sell -out @ 1.74 1.75 1.76 and 1.78 and it close at 1.79 but still a profit because I bought it with an average  of 1.70. Still a bad strategy. Emotions must be controlled, since FED issue I had sold the stock and not sticking on my strategy. ALI already sold-out at price 35.95 with a decent profit. Lesson learned - Stick on your strategy and Don't be affected by news. 

09152015:  FLI stocks goes down by 1.75 again then wait for reversal then make BUY back. Fear of the FED hike makes me again connected of my emotions that's why I easily give up my strategy to purchase. Fear on buying ION makes me feel bad of not entering and this stock surge almost 50%. Including SBS, DD, EDC, I see all the signal going up but I refuse to take action on it because of  external news. As of this moment I have some stocks doing  fine and taking some small profits.

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My Philippine stocks diary - September 2015 Week 02

  A good starting point for self examination is to review your own investment or trading record over the past few years. Even if you have made a profit, careful examination may reveal that the record owes a considerable debt to one particular investment whose success was due as much to chance as to any other positive factor.

 Even successful point for self-examination is to review your own investing, then 

DISCLAIMER
Please be advised that this is not recommendation to BUY or SELL. Manage your OWN risk.

RECOMMENDED LINK TO NEWBIES : CLICK HERE

      

Free Seminars:

  Free Stock Market 101 Seminar

Free Webinars

   PSE Academy free Webinars

How to invest in the Philippine Stock Market for beginners:

  Smart Pinoy Investor by Omeng Tawid

SEPTEMBER 2015 WEEK 02

"For GOD didn't give us spirit of fear, but of power, love and self control." - 2 Timothy 1:7

STOCK PICK with good fundamental analysis:

Click the image to enlarge

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

i.  TABLE ANALYSIS

SEPTEMBER 07, 2015

TA09072015 - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Notes:

SEPTEMBER 08, 2015

TA09082015 - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Notes:

SEPTEMBER 09, 2015

TA 09092015 -TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Notes: I add NIKKEI index japan - all signals turn green, I just make a good BUY on my AC 

Notes 09092015

SEPTEMBER 10, 2015

TA 09102015 - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Notes 09102015

SEPTEMBER 10, 2015

TA09112015

ii.  GRAPHS 09072015

A. STOCK 01  -  Ayala  Land  Inc. (ALI) 
Click the image to enlarge

B. STOCK 02 - Metropolitan Bank Corp. (MBT)
Click the image to enlarge

C. STOCK 04 - Ayala Corp. (AC)
Click the image to enlarge

D. STOCK 05 - First Philippine Holdings (FPH)
Click the image to enlarge

E. STOCK 06 -  Cosco Capital Inc. (COSCO)
Click the image to enlarge

Note: O-H order done before 9:00 AM September 01, 2015 
In making an Order always ask pray and ask the guidance of the Lord.

EXECUTION:
Click the image to enlarge

Last Friday Execution September 04, 2015

Note on Strategy : 
09072015: I was able to sold out my stock and based from my readings on my excel all reversal downtrend it make sense to sold out ALI at 34.80 last Friday and now it closed @ 33.65 (-3.21% down)  And also NIKKEI index signal for a downtrend  followed by Europe then US index. Global weakness is at stake right now. Then 20% only of my portfolio will be traded actively. Others will still on hold and wait for reversal UPTREND.

09092015: Due to surge in prices of  different index in ASIA, I  execute a buy order at this day with 80% of my portfolio. Its worth making the decision to trade at this moment because of the momentum going on globally on stock prices. this allow me to take patience to wait and I think  its a good start to trade but when something goes wrong I can easily exit with that small profit.

summary of my portfolio

09102015: Despite a surge of NIKKEI japan index by 7.71 and followed by Europe Index like DAX Germany, still lot of worries on the FED rate hike wherein good result from the job output. With this, PSEI is affected and technical analysis shows again a downtrend. I made again the decision to sold some of my stocks even just a small profit to stay on the sideline with the buying power whenever there is a good opportunity, I will just jump in and make the necessary BUY. Always measure the risk you are going to face specially on this roller coaster ride type of market.


09112015: In check with EPHE index uptrend, PSEI will follow its upward movement. With this, My ALI stock remain invested with 8000 shares. I had a mistake in buying FGEN and EDC and I am late to make a sell order due to emotion and this makes my loss for this day. Its a negative movement and. since they are borrowing now to banks to pay debt of the maturing bonds, this means the downtrend happening maybe the cause of this  falling prices. Despite of my loss incurred, my JGS balance it with a profit. Lesson learned: CONTROL your emotions on making a trade.

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How to use Sample MS EXCEL spreadsheet? Philippine Stock Monitoring Tool for better result.

My goal is to show how to use ms excel sheet in monitoring stock prices. Ms Excel sheet is a widely used software in offices and other related data analysis. Having a tool in monitoring stock prices will allow you to develop certain rules. The following rules stated on the images is a sample strategy that you can adapt and you can improve as you go along the way.

This article will show to you how to think for yourself, ignore tha day to day noise and make profitable investment decision on your own analysis and set of rules.

Successful Monitoring is built on three core principle:

1. Knowing when to buy and sell.
2. Doing your homework.
3. Having a margin of safety.

UPDATED MONITORING LINK:
SEPTEMBER WEEK2

DOWNLOAD HERE:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2FEBrxaHeHiSTNCMEdEaEVXbzg/view?usp=sharing

VISION: sharing ideas to develop and simplify  monitoring  of stocks using MS EXCEL SHEET.
To develop strategy that is effective in minimizing risk while maximizing stock profit.
To establish a trading plan before the start a market and not by simple "tsamba".

STEP 01: STRATEGY

SPREADSHEET 02: SUMMARY OF EQUITY

NOTES: this can be edited

STOCK PICK - based from your drop down filtered spreadsheet 01: fundamentals link  to each company name (stock pick 01-03(medium term), stock pick 04-05 (short term), stock pick 6 - trading) gray color

CODE/SYMBOL- based from your drop down filtered spreadsheet 01: fundamentals link  to each company SYMBOLS

TYPE - based from your drop down filtered spreadsheet 01: fundamentals link  to each company CATEGORY

juan dela cruz - you can put your name to customize your model portfolio.

ALLOCATION- percentage allocation of each stock is dependent on your preference.

20%- total amount of equity to be traded is dependent on your risk reward ration at that time for me I used 20% of my total portfolio in and out in the market due to global weakness. (you just change the percentage then the amount will be computed automatically)

STRATEGY INVESTIGATION- the real purpose of these is to set your own strategy plan based from an effective previous trade plan.

TIME MANAGEMENT -  allocation of your time specially to those who are not full time in trading ( I suggest trade plan is start, noon break and closing time.

STEP 02: DATA INPUTS 

SPREADSHEET  06 WATCH LIST DATA INPUT

NOTES: DATA INPUTS

A. Copy quotes watch list (from col financial) 

    - watch list is based from your 12 top picks on spreadsheet 01: fundamentals (yellow color)

    - use google chrome browser.

B. Paste special - VALUE on spreadsheet "current trading watch list"

    - watch list is based from your 12 top picks on spreadsheet 01: fundamentals (yellow color)

    - use this one to update prices.

C. Paste special - VALUE on spreadsheet "today"

    - watch list is based from your 12 top picks on spreadsheet 01: fundamentals (yellow color)

    - inputs used to update spreadsheet 07: monitoring stock prices

      (red fill-lower stock price previous, green fill- higher price previous) 

   - closing period

always update lower tables on spreadsheet 06 - copy paste special (yesterdays price list) 

closing period

STEP 03: DATA INPUT 02 - AVERAGE PRICE

COL FINANCIAL QUOTES - TRADED PRICE

SPREAD SHEET 03 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

SPREADSHEET 03 : TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NOTES: DATA INPUTS

A. Copy average price yesterday and paste special -  value a@ previous column

B. Data Input (from col financial quotes-traded price) 

    - average price traded for the day

    - after stock market closing

legend: (green fill -  higher average price, red fill - lower average price)

STEP 04: DATA INPUT 03 - OPENING PRICE 

   - purpose to determine the color of the candlestick and when there is a DOJI

COL FINANCIAL: QOUTES

•  Input Opening price @ opening price table (from col financial)

STEP 05: DATA INPUT 04 - GRAPH DATA INPUT ANALYSIS

GRAPH 01

SPREADSHEET 03: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NOTES: DATA INPUTS

For MACD only

A. Copy MACD value and paste special -  value a@ MACD previous column 

B. Data Input (from graph provided by col financial - quotes-charting) 

    (use internet explorer in chart)

SUPPORT - A

RESISTANCE - B

5MA (5 day moving average) - C

MACD - D

Notes:

 Each trader have a different time frame and that makes every trader have different analysis. beware tips from other people. You might not know you have a different time frame.

STEP 06: TECHNICAL TABLE ANALYSIS

Go to Link: https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1574269398077451413#editor/target=post;postID=7711473229695250172

SPREADSHEET 06 & 04

ACTION TO BE TAKEN: 

    A. EXECUTING A BUY

•  If you're analysis is to BUY ALI - Input BUY1 - means you want to buy ALI with a price order of 35.10(price is based from your analysis). Automatically your plan to buy ALI will be shown on spreadsheet 04 ALI 1 row ( see highlighted gray ) 
• Then if it is executed just type the word "EXECUTED" and re input the value 35.10 (highlighted gray). 
• If not executed just delete the word BUY1 on the table
• Then on your next buy order, input BUY2  and so on until BUY4.
• I divided into 4 transaction to minimize trading 

Notes: 

On the table provided, you can put your reason of buying that stock that will serve as your record.If you put a BUY1....4 on action taken table, you will see that following data will be automatically recorded (percentage gain/loss,total traded amount and percentage) and also on spreadsheet 08 cash flows.computations on fees, commissions are already included at the transaction)

SPREADSHEET 04 & 06

   B. EXECUTING A SELL

• If you're analysis is to SELL ALI - Input SELL1 - means you want to sell ALI with a price order of 38(price is based from your analysis). Automatically your plan to sell ALI will be shown on spreadsheet 04 ALI 1 row ( see highlighted gray )
•  then if it is executed copy the gain/loss value and paste special besides executed word and you can now delete "EXECUTED" on the table to record the transaction. 
• If not executed just delete the word SELL1 on the table
• Then on your next sell order, input SELL2  and so on until SELL4.
• I divided into 4 transaction to minimize trading for stocks 01 to 3.

Notes:

On the table provided, you can put your reason of selling that stock that will serve as your record. If you put a SELL1....4 on action taken table, you will see that following data will be automatically recorded (percentage gain/loss,total traded amount and percentage) and also on spreadsheet 08 cash flows. Computations on fees, commissions are already included at the transaction).

STEP 06: CASH FLOWS

SPREADSHEET 08 - CASH FLOWS

Note: adjustment is in the part of equity trade to be equal on your portfolio. Capital input and additional capital will be placed on ADD-ON column every month. 

- The table shows how much you gain  or loss by daily, weekly, monthly. 

- IPO and dividends is also included here for the computation of equity value.

UPDATED TABULATION 09042015

TA09042015 - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TIPS:
Use the QUOTE - SIX PACKS by col financial to monitor the 6 STOCK PICKS

RECOMMENDED LINK TO NEWBIES : CLICK HERE

      

Free Seminars:

  Free Stock Market 101 Seminar

Free Webinars

   PSE Academy free Webinars

How to invest in the Philippine Stock Market for beginners:

  Smart Pinoy Investor by Omeng Tawid

If you have questions with regards to the sample template being shared, Please don't hesitate to post a comment on this blog or you can contact me @ philippine.stocksdiary@gmail.com

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